(Editor’s Note: Sports Capital Journalism Program graduate students Jeffery Green and Cort Street are covering the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl between Penn State and Notre Dame. Here are their predictions.)
These teams are very similar in a lot of ways. In the 91st Capital One Orange Bowl, we will see two teams that love to run the ball and play immaculate defense. With an all-time record of 9-9-1 and two coaches looking to show the world their teams are back to their old ways of winning championships; we are in for a great northern showdown between the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions in South Florida.
Much has been said about how great these defenses are and how big a task they have at hand with these offensive skill players. But how much can they take before this epically long season shows itself and the offenses take control? Since the creation of the College Football Playoff, the semifinal winners have averaged 38.7 points in their victories. I do not think we will get anywhere near that number with Notre Dame and Penn State defenses that averaged 13.6 and 15.8 points per game this season. Marcus Freeman told reporters that this will be a fourth quarter game, and I agree. Whichever team will get control of the line of scrimmage in a tug-of-war final quarter will win the tough matchup and head to Atlanta.
Much of the conversation this week has been about the history of this matchup. We are in for another great one tonight in the Orange Bowl. With so much on the line and the margin for error as narrow as it will be all season up to this point, the outcome will come down to which quarterback will take control. Pressure will be at an all-time high, both mentally and at the line of scrimmage. Can Notre Dame Coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish pull it off in a game they are narrowly favorited in?
My heart says yes, but my gut tells me no.
My gut is usually wrong.
Notre Dame 22, Penn State 16
By Jeffery Green | @Jeffery_Agreen
Notre Dame and Penn State have played 19 times previously, with an incredible head-to-head record of 9-9-1 all-time. The two historic powers have followed similar blueprints for success this season, boasting explosive rushing attacks, inconsistent passing attacks, and strong, tenacious defensive efforts to reach this point in the College Football Playoff. In what has the potential to be a low-scoring, defensive affair, this game could come down to who can finish more drives with touchdowns in the red zone. Notre Dame was excellent at scoring red-zone touchdowns during the regular season, but so far in the playoff, the Irish have been just 3-for-6 against Indiana and Georgia. Penn State has been excellent at scoring touchdowns in the red-zone so far in the playoffs, going 4-for-4 on red-zone trips, but they have yet to face a defense like Notre Dame’s.
In the end, I believe Penn State quarterback Drew Allar can give his team a slightly more potent offensive attack than quarterback Riley Leonard can give the Irish, and I believe Allar can take advantage of Notre Dame’s man coverage that showed cracks in last week’s battle against Georgia’s Gunner Stockton. The Nittany Lions will win, but the Irish will refuse to go away until the very end.
Penn State 20, Notre Dame 16
By Cort Street | @cort_street
